This Is Madness

March comes in like a lion and out like a lamb, so goes the old adage. The college basketball world, however, would beg to differ. Known as “March Madness,” the yearly NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament starts its engines more than halfway through the month and continues to turn the action up a notch in the weeks following it, leading up to the championship game in early April.

Composed of 68 teams, this year’s field seems particularly unpredictable. Over the course of the past season, a variety of teams held the number one ranking (Indiana, Duke, Gonzaga, Michigan, and Louisville). Numerous others cycled throughout the top 10, like Syracuse which began the season ranked as high as 3 in the polls, but eventually plummeted as low as 20. Or Georgetown, which entered the season unranked and gradually ascended through the rankings, ultimately earning a 2 seed for the tournament. And let’s not forget that Kentucky, last year’s champion, didn’t even make the tournament this time around, opening the door for other teams to take advantage of its absence.

With such uncertainty about who will trounce who, which highly-seeded squad will suffer a debilitating upset, and which dark horse will ride its success deep into the Final Four, the question then becomes: who do you pencil in as this year’s champion? Look no further. I’ve got your answer, plus more on which teams will advance and which ones will flounder.

Sleepers

New Mexico- Maybe it’s hard to call a 3 seed a “sleeper” per se. But, that’s exactly what this New Mexico team is. Placed in the West Region with the likes of Gonzaga, Ohio State, Kansas State, and Wisconsin, this is one of the best Lobos teams in years. The winners of the Mountain West Conference tournament rarely take bad shots, and with 7-foot sophomore Alex Kirk in the mix, this team could spell disaster for a potential matchup with Ohio State in the Sweet Sixteen. Look for Lobos to surprise some people and even, gasp, win the entire region.

St. Louis- Who? What in the world is a Billiken? Only a team that’s 15-1 over its last 16 games. Coached by Rick Majerus since 2007, the Billikens’ leader took leave from the team last August and passed away from heart failure in December. Whether or not the team is playing in memory of Majerus, the Billikens have dominated the Atlantic 10 Conference, beating Butler three times and VCU twice, winning the Atlantic 10 title in the second meeting with the Rams. They may have a difficult draw in that they will, in all likelihood, play top-seeded Louisville. But in the event that the Cardinals make some mistakes, look for St. Louis to capitalize and pull the colossal upset. Who knows? Maybe by the end of this tournament, we won’t be asking ourselves what a Billiken is after all.

#21 Dwayne Evans lays it up against Butler in the Atlantic 10 Tournament.

Pittsburgh- I must confess that I am indeed a Pitt graduate. So you’re probably not surprised that I have them on this list. I may be a bit of a homer, but even from an objective standpoint I can spot an underseeded team when I see one. The Panthers’ body of work this season was fraught with inconsistency, with losses to Rutgers and Cincinnati but wins over Syracuse and Georgetown. Most importantly, they still managed to fight their way through the brutal Big East. With no stand-out stars on the team, Coach Jamie Dixon’s squad goes 10 players deep almost every game. With that kind of depth, not to mention 7-footer Steven Adams, the Panthers will give Gonzaga an early test in the second round and could reclaim a spot in the Sweet Sixteen and beyond. Don’t count them out.

VCU- The Rams are flat-out scary. Every team in the South Region should shudder at the chance of playing them. Hearkening back to two years ago when they made their first Final Four, the Rams have proven that they can win games in this tournament. And this year could prove to be no different. VCU is the most dangerous 5-seed, and Coach Shaka Smart motivates his team to wreak havoc on the mindsets of their opposition. They also rank 11^th in Division I scoring with 78.0 PPG, so every team that plays them has to up the ante on defense in order to send the Rams packing. Keep your eye on VCU, because they might have the best chance of any of my sleepers to make the deepest run.

VCU Coach Shaka Smart consistently teaches a brand of mentally and
physically intense play that his teams bring to the court.

Overrated

Gonzaga- On the surface, the Bulldogs are a compelling team. They dominated the West Coast Conference and the WCC Tournament. Two decent wins against Oklahoma State and Kansas State also gave their accomplishments more merit. But because they dropped two against Illinois and Butler, it’s easier to call the Zags the weakest 1 seed. With that said, WCC Player of the Year Kelly Olynyk is 7’0,” and you can’t teach height. Simply put, the big man can ball. He poses a serious threat to teams without strength and size- which is exactly why I see them losing to Pitt in the second round. Pitt is one of the toughest defensive teams in the country and has its own 7-footer in Steven Adams who, although physically weaker, can put a body on Olynyk and send the Bulldogs home early.

Gonzaga's 7'0" Kelly Olynyk will be tough to stop without tough defense.

Michigan- The Wolverines’ attempt to channel the talent and swagger of the original Fab Five seemed to pay dividends early in the season as they won 16 straight. But as Big 10 play began, teams like Indiana and Ohio State took advantage of Michigan’s subpar post play. A bad late-season loss to conference basement-dweller Penn State only made matters worse. Moreover, the Wolverines’ draw in the South Region isn’t the easiest road to Atlanta. In the second round, they’re likely to play an extremely dangerous VCU team, and even if they can surmount that obstacle, they would still have the Jayhawks in their way. This team has what it takes to make a deep tourney run, but I don’t see them pulling together enough consistency to perform at a clutch level.

Duke- Duke may be one, if not the, most hated team in contemporary College Basketball. But that’s not why they’re on this list. (I love Dick Vitale, but the man probably has Fatheads of JJ Redick and Christian Laettner in his room…that’s a problem). The Blue Devils proved yet again that they are capable of handling the pressure of being, well, Duke. Their out of conference schedule, which included wins against Louisville, Ohio State, and VCU, was evidence enough. However, the ACC was relatively weak this year, and two losses to Maryland and one to Virginia exposed Duke a bit. Don’t get me wrong. senior forward Mason Plumlee is a beast on the boards, but teams like Louisville, Michigan State, and St. Louis could make escaping the Midwest Region extremely difficult.

Final Four

Louisville- As one of the best defensive teams in the nation, the Cardinals have proven that they belong among the college basketball elite. Though Rick Pitino’s team has five losses, none of them are what I would classify as bad. More importantly, Louisville hasn’t dropped a game since the 5-overtime thriller to Notre Dame on February 9, rattling off 10 straight victories en route to winning the Big East Tournament. Led by senior guard Peyton Siva, the Big East Tournament MVP, the Cardinals have emerged as a favorite to win the NCAA Championship during a tournament that didn’t appear to have a clear-cut victor. They’ll definitely face a challenge if St. Louis or Michigan State squares off against them, but I think this team has what it takes to punch its ticket to the Final Four and beyond.

The Cardinals have already won the 2013 Big East Tournament. Could they go all the way
and win the big dance too?

Ohio State- The Buckeyes are an interesting team. If you asked me halfway through the season if I thought they could make a championship run, I would have shaken my head. But when it comes down to tournament time, the question becomes, “What have you done for me lately?” Well, Ohio State has done more than enough. With eight straight wins that include two victories over Michigan St. and one each over Indiana and Wisconsin (the latter resulting in winning the Big 10 Tournament), Thad Matta’s team is set to make a deep run through the West Region and even further. With junior guard Deshaun Thomas scoring buckets left and right, the Buckeyes are a dangerous team, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they went all the way.

Indiana- The preseason No. 1 stood atop the rankings for six weeks before its first loss to a solid Butler team. They did work within the Big 10, earning two wins each against tough Michigan and Michigan St. teams. Junior guard Victor Oladipo (First Team All-American) gives the Hoosiers an explosive burst of athleticism and has the capability to wear down any team in the league. With teammate Cody Zeller by his side, the two seem like one of the best dynamic duos the league can offer. But, and there’s always a “but,” the Hoosiers were exposed twice by a dangerous Wisconsin team,  most recently allowing the Badgers too many three-point opportunities. If Indiana can’t consistently play to its strengths in the East Region, Miami (FL) will definitely advance, but I have faith in the Hoosiers and their star power. Look for them to make an appearance in Atlanta.

Indiana's superstar Victor Oladipo drives to the basket against Michigan St.

Georgetown- The Hoyas started out slow, absent from the preseason rankings. But a mid-season push combined with the emergence of Otto Porter Jr., the unanimous Big East Player of the Year, elevated the team to new heights. The 6’8” sophomore led Georgetown to 11 straight wins in the grind-it-out Big East, a feat in and of itself. They may have stumbled against Syracuse in the Big East Tournament, but if the team is poised enough, they can definitely make a deep run in the South Region and compete against squads like Florida and Kansas. Look for the Hoyas to surprise some people when they end up in Atlanta.

2013 CHAMPION: Louisville Cardinals- I just don't see any other way around it. These guys have a tremendous amount of talent on both sides of the ball and can ramp up the tempo of the game so quickly. They'll be challenged numerous times by Michigan State, Ohio St. and Indiana, but with superior guard play, sound defense, and efficient teamwork they'll be cutting down the nets in Atlanta. 

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Ready to join the madness? Visit ESPN.com to fill out your own interactive bracket or click here to print one for yourself.