March comes in like a lion and out like a lamb, so
goes the old adage. The college basketball world, however, would beg to differ.
Known as “March Madness,” the yearly NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament starts
its engines more than halfway through the month and continues to turn the
action up a notch in the weeks following it, leading up to the championship game
in early April.
Composed of 68 teams, this year’s field seems
particularly unpredictable. Over the course of the past season, a variety of
teams held the number one ranking (Indiana, Duke, Gonzaga, Michigan, and
Louisville). Numerous others cycled throughout the top 10, like Syracuse which
began the season ranked as high as 3 in the polls, but eventually plummeted as
low as 20. Or Georgetown, which entered the season unranked and gradually
ascended through the rankings, ultimately earning a 2 seed for the tournament. And
let’s not forget that Kentucky, last year’s champion, didn’t even make the tournament this time around,
opening the door for other teams to take advantage of its absence.
With such uncertainty about who will trounce who, which
highly-seeded squad will suffer a debilitating upset, and which dark horse will
ride its success deep into the Final Four, the question then becomes: who do you pencil in as this year’s champion?
Look no further. I’ve got your answer, plus more on which teams will advance
and which ones will flounder.
Sleepers
New Mexico- Maybe it’s hard to call a 3 seed a “sleeper”
per se. But, that’s exactly what this New Mexico team is. Placed in the West
Region with the likes of Gonzaga, Ohio State, Kansas State, and Wisconsin, this
is one of the best Lobos teams in years. The winners of the Mountain West
Conference tournament rarely take bad shots, and with 7-foot sophomore Alex
Kirk in the mix, this team could spell disaster for a potential matchup with
Ohio State in the Sweet Sixteen. Look for Lobos to surprise some people and
even, gasp, win the entire region.
St. Louis- Who? What in the world is a Billiken?
Only a team that’s 15-1 over its last 16 games. Coached by Rick Majerus since
2007, the Billikens’ leader took leave from the team last August and passed
away from heart failure in December. Whether or not the team is playing in
memory of Majerus, the Billikens have dominated the Atlantic 10 Conference,
beating Butler three times and VCU twice, winning the Atlantic 10 title in the
second meeting with the Rams. They may have a difficult draw in that they will,
in all likelihood, play top-seeded Louisville. But in the event that the
Cardinals make some mistakes, look for St. Louis to capitalize and pull the
colossal upset. Who knows? Maybe by the end of this tournament, we won’t be
asking ourselves what a Billiken is after all.
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| #21 Dwayne Evans lays it up against Butler in the Atlantic 10 Tournament. |
Pittsburgh- I must confess that I am indeed a Pitt
graduate. So you’re probably not surprised that I have them on this list. I may
be a bit of a homer, but even from an objective standpoint I can spot an
underseeded team when I see one. The Panthers’ body of work this season was fraught
with inconsistency, with losses to Rutgers and Cincinnati but wins over
Syracuse and Georgetown. Most importantly, they still managed to fight their
way through the brutal Big East. With no stand-out stars on the team,
Coach Jamie Dixon’s squad goes 10 players deep almost every game. With that
kind of depth, not to mention 7-footer Steven Adams, the Panthers will give
Gonzaga an early test in the second round and could reclaim a spot in the Sweet
Sixteen and beyond. Don’t count them out.
VCU- The Rams are flat-out scary. Every team in the South
Region should shudder at the chance of playing them. Hearkening back to two
years ago when they made their first Final Four, the Rams have proven that they
can win games in this tournament. And this year could prove to be no different.
VCU is the most dangerous 5-seed, and Coach Shaka Smart motivates his team to
wreak havoc on the mindsets of their opposition. They also rank 11th
in Division I scoring with 78.0 PPG, so every team that plays them has to up the ante on defense in order
to send the Rams packing. Keep your eye on VCU, because they might have the
best chance of any of my sleepers to make the deepest run.
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| VCU Coach Shaka Smart consistently teaches a brand of mentally and physically intense play that his teams bring to the court. |
Overrated
Gonzaga- On the surface, the Bulldogs are a
compelling team. They dominated the West Coast Conference and the WCC
Tournament. Two decent wins against Oklahoma State and Kansas State also gave
their accomplishments more merit. But because they dropped two against Illinois
and Butler, it’s easier to call the Zags the weakest 1 seed. With that said,
WCC Player of the Year Kelly Olynyk is 7’0,” and you can’t teach height. Simply
put, the big man can ball. He poses a serious threat to teams without strength
and size- which is exactly why I see them losing to Pitt in the second round. Pitt
is one of the toughest defensive teams in the country and has its own 7-footer
in Steven Adams who, although physically weaker, can put a body on Olynyk and
send the Bulldogs home early.
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| Gonzaga's 7'0" Kelly Olynyk will be tough to stop without tough defense. |
Michigan- The Wolverines’ attempt to channel the talent
and swagger of the original Fab Five seemed to pay dividends early in the
season as they won 16 straight. But as Big 10 play began, teams like Indiana
and Ohio State took advantage of Michigan’s subpar post play. A bad late-season
loss to conference basement-dweller Penn State only made matters worse. Moreover,
the Wolverines’ draw in the South Region isn’t the easiest road to Atlanta. In
the second round, they’re likely to play an extremely dangerous VCU team, and
even if they can surmount that obstacle, they would still have the Jayhawks in
their way. This team has what it takes to make a deep tourney run, but I don’t
see them pulling together enough consistency to perform at a clutch level.
Duke- Duke may be one, if not the, most hated team in contemporary College Basketball. But that’s
not why they’re on this list. (I love Dick Vitale, but the man probably has
Fatheads of JJ Redick and Christian Laettner in his room…that’s a problem). The
Blue Devils proved yet again that they are capable of handling the pressure of
being, well, Duke. Their out of conference schedule, which included wins
against Louisville, Ohio State, and VCU, was evidence enough. However, the ACC
was relatively weak this year, and two losses to Maryland and one to Virginia exposed
Duke a bit. Don’t get me wrong. senior forward Mason Plumlee is a beast on the
boards, but teams like Louisville, Michigan State, and St. Louis could make
escaping the Midwest Region extremely difficult.
Final
Four
Louisville- As one of the best defensive teams in
the nation, the Cardinals have proven that they belong among the college
basketball elite. Though Rick Pitino’s team has five losses, none of them are
what I would classify as bad. More
importantly, Louisville hasn’t dropped a game since the 5-overtime thriller to
Notre Dame on February 9, rattling off 10 straight victories en route to
winning the Big East Tournament. Led by senior guard Peyton Siva, the Big East
Tournament MVP, the Cardinals have emerged as a favorite to win the NCAA Championship
during a tournament that didn’t appear to have a clear-cut victor. They’ll
definitely face a challenge if St. Louis or Michigan State squares off against them,
but I think this team has what it takes to punch its ticket to the Final Four
and beyond.
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| The Cardinals have already won the 2013 Big East Tournament. Could they go all the way and win the big dance too? |
Ohio State- The Buckeyes are an interesting team. If
you asked me halfway through the season if I thought they could make a
championship run, I would have shaken my head. But when it comes down to
tournament time, the question becomes, “What have you done for me lately?”
Well, Ohio State has done more than enough. With eight straight wins that
include two victories over Michigan St. and one each over Indiana and Wisconsin
(the latter resulting in winning the Big 10 Tournament), Thad Matta’s team is
set to make a deep run through the West Region and even further. With junior
guard Deshaun Thomas scoring buckets left and right, the Buckeyes are a
dangerous team, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they went all the way.
Indiana- The preseason No. 1 stood atop the rankings
for six weeks before its first loss to a solid Butler team. They did work
within the Big 10, earning two wins each against tough Michigan and Michigan
St. teams. Junior guard Victor Oladipo (First Team All-American) gives the
Hoosiers an explosive burst of athleticism and has the capability to wear down
any team in the league. With teammate Cody Zeller by his side, the two seem
like one of the best dynamic duos the league can offer. But, and there’s always
a “but,” the Hoosiers were exposed twice by a dangerous Wisconsin team, most recently allowing the Badgers too many
three-point opportunities. If Indiana can’t consistently play to its strengths
in the East Region, Miami (FL) will definitely advance, but I have faith in the
Hoosiers and their star power. Look for them to make an appearance in Atlanta.
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| Indiana's superstar Victor Oladipo drives to the basket against Michigan St. |
Georgetown- The Hoyas started out slow, absent from
the preseason rankings. But a mid-season push combined with the emergence of
Otto Porter Jr., the unanimous Big East Player of the Year, elevated the team
to new heights. The 6’8” sophomore led Georgetown to 11 straight wins in the grind-it-out
Big East, a feat in and of itself. They may have stumbled against Syracuse in
the Big East Tournament, but if the team is poised enough, they can definitely
make a deep run in the South Region and compete against squads like Florida and
Kansas. Look for the Hoyas to surprise some people when they end up in Atlanta.
2013 CHAMPION: Louisville Cardinals- I just don't see any other way around it. These guys have a tremendous amount of talent on both sides of the ball and can ramp up the tempo of the game so quickly. They'll be challenged numerous times by Michigan State, Ohio St. and Indiana, but with superior guard play, sound defense, and efficient teamwork they'll be cutting down the nets in Atlanta.
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